Demand Forecasting & Sensing
To make smart operational decisions, you need reliable forecasts. But if you are like many companies, you are dealing with a lot of random, variable and intermittent demand. You can’t get the forecast accuracy you need to manage and respond properly. And the process of translating your aggregated sales forecast into an operational supply chain forecast at the customer (Item-Location) level can be onerous and time consuming.
ToolsGroup’s Demand Forecasting goes well beyond a standard time-series to automatically model bottoms-up demand for individual products/SKUs in great detail. By analyzing order- lines, it models both historical demand quantities and demand frequency to provide a much clearer view of volatility. For instance, it understands the difference between a bulk order of 12 units and selling that same product individually 12 times.
It expertly handles intermittent “long tail” demand for slower moving products that are inherently harder to forecast. It understands volatility drivers, both market (trends, seasonality, causal factors and lumpiness) and organizational (demand shaping promotions, new products, forecast bias and the bullwhip effect). And it’s both highly automated and uses readily- available data.